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Iraq Seizes Kirkuk, Briefly Knocks 350,000 Bpd Offline

October 16, 2017 Nick Cunningham 0

Oil prices spiked on Monday after Iraqi forces seized the oil fields around Kirkuk, which had largely been under Kurdish control since 2014. There were conflicting reports as of Monday, but oil supplies from the region may have been disrupted, although perhaps only temporarily. The military maneuver by Iraqi forces comes as retaliation for the Kurdish independence vote staged a few weeks ago, a move condemned by Baghdad, as well as the governments of Turkey and Iran, both of which have their own Kurdish populations. Iran closed border crossings,…

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IEA: Oil Prices To Hit A Ceiling In 2018

October 12, 2017 Nick Cunningham 0

The global oil market continues to make progress, but the ongoing production gains from non-OPEC countries will probably act as a “the ceiling for aspirations of higher oil prices” in 2018, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency. In its monthly Oil Market Report published Thursday, the IEA cataloged the long list of indicators that suggests the oil market has made huge strides this year towards rebalancing. In the second and the third quarter, the global supply/demand balance was in a deficit, putting total inventories…

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Goldman Sachs: Inventory Drawdowns Will Not Continue

October 12, 2017 Nick Cunningham 0

The September oil price rally was predicated on improving oil market fundamentals, bolstering confidence that the rebalancing process was accelerating. But the inventory declines reported in the third quarter might be “as good as it gets,” with inventories returning to small increases next year, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs. The third quarter appeared to finally be the turning point for an oil market suffering from a more than three-year downturn. The OPEC deal was finally bearing fruit—inventories started posting…

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What Really Killed The Oil Price Rally

October 3, 2017 Nick Cunningham 0

The oil market gained a lot of momentum in August and September, and Brent flirted with $60 per barrel toward the end of last month. But suddenly, oil prices have pulled back from their recent highs, and could head lower unless some bullish data emerges. The recent rally—unlike other rallies over the past three years—has been underpinned by substantial improvements in the underlying fundamentals. Global refined product stocks are just a bit above the five-year average, having drained significantly in recent months. Crude stocks are…

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Oil Prices At A Ceiling, Or Just Getting Started?

September 27, 2017 Nick Cunningham 0

Oil moved back into bull market territory this week, with Brent prices jumping to a more than two-year high at $58 per barrel. A confluence of events has given a jolt of optimism to oil prices, with market sentiment at its most positive arguably in years. The proximate spark from earlier this week was the Kurdish referendum, which raised the specter of a sizable supply outage when Turkey threatened to cut off Kurdish oil exports through its territory, and Baghdad joined in by calling for an international boycott of Kurdish oil sales. So far, there…

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Kurdish Vote Won’t Spark A Sustained Oil Price Rally

September 26, 2017 Nick Cunningham 0

Turkey and Iraq have stepped up the pressure on Kurdistan after the semi-autonomous region of Iraq voted for independence. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to block Kurdish oil exports through Turkish territory, while Baghdad called for an international boycott of Kurdish oil sales. The Kurdish people appeared to have voted overwhelmingly for independence on Monday, pending final results. But the Kurdish Regional Government has said that the vote, which won’t be recognized internationally, will be a starting point…

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Is The Sun Setting On The Solar Boom?

September 14, 2017 Nick Cunningham 0

The U.S. solar industry is expected to see its expansion significantly curtailed this year after installing record capacity in 2016, marking the first annual decline in installations for the industry. A new report from GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) raises some question marks for the trajectory of the solar industry. In the second quarter, the U.S. installed 2.38 gigawatts of new solar PV. A decent performance, but with two quarters in the books, the industry is only on track to install 12.4 GW of new capacity in…

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The Most Bullish Oil Report This Year

September 13, 2017 Nick Cunningham 0

Despite the huge uncertainties related to the two massive hurricanes that hit the U.S., the global oil market looks tighter than it has in a long time, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency. Global oil supply fell in August for the first time in four months, the IEA said, a result of a dip in OPEC’s oil production, combined with refinery maintenance and sizable outages from Hurricane Harvey. World oil supply fell by 720,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August compared to July, a significant decline that will aid in the…

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Schlumberger’s Gamble Could Change Oilfield Services Forever

September 13, 2017 Nick Cunningham 0

The world’s largest oilfield services firm has decided that it should take an ownership stake in upstream oil and gas production, rather than simply provide the services for doing so. The new strategy is being closely watched as a potential model for the major oilfield services companies that have drilling prowess but struggle with lackluster activity in a world of $50 oil. Schlumberger has decided to put billions of dollars on the line to become an oil producer, not just a drilling servicer. Typically, Schlumberger and its peers provide…

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Hurricane Irma’s Wrath Weighs On Natural Gas

September 12, 2017 Nick Cunningham 0

Hurricane Irma has left millions of people without power in Florida, a critical situation that could take a painfully long period of time to sort out. Estimates vary, but some 9 million people lost power during Hurricane Irma, according to the CEO of Florida Power & Light, the state’s largest utility. As of Monday, an additional 1 million people lost power in Georgia and South Carolina as the remains of Irma moved north. Florida Power & Light has already begun restoring power, but as of Monday, there were more than 3.6 million customers…

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