Weekly analysis- Elliott waves for Forex correlation analysis – Bulish pin bar on Silver chart

Gold weekly Review
Wave Analysis:

As anticipated, following the bullish inside bar witnessed on Jan 6th 2017, the impulsive wave (5) traded relentlessly long but is yet to reach our target take profit at 1214. During this intraday, we still expect further bullish acceleration towards this target or even a break above it. A break above 1221 will push the price further to the upper side but should not go beyond 1300. This upward rally  is highly anticipated since Silver a positively correlated commodity had a bullish pin bar and will likely trade on the higher ranges during this intraday. Only buy or sell Gold if Silver is giving the same signal.

Trade Recommendations:

Remain long with the first target at 1214.

Bullish pin bar on Jan 13th 2017

Wave Analysis:

As previously forecasted, the impulsive wave (c) traded long but is yet to reach our target rebound level at 17.10. We expect minor bearish pullbacks towards 16.70 to give us low risk buy opportunities.  The anticipated buy position should be the continuation of the impulsive wave (c) towards our previous Take profit level at 17.10. A break above 17.18, will push the price further to the upper side but should not go beyond 18.55. A  clear rebound around 17.10 will mean we’re headed short  towards 16.44  and may break lower to 16.10. Expect a similar wave count in Gold, these two commodities have a strong positive correlation of up to +89% and will have a similar price action during this intraday. Gold drags silver along with it. Only buy or silver if gold is giving the same signal.

Trade Recommendations:

Remain long with your target at 17.10. Alternatively, you could wait for a clear breakout above 17.18 to go long with your ideal target at 18. Sell positions can only recommended upon a clear rebound from 17.10.

Crude oil consolidating

Wave Analysis:

Earlier the previous week, crude oil entered into consolidations not going above 54.14 or below 50.76. As long as the crude oil remains within this equilibrium zone, we’re only interested in trading reversals, any break out of this consolidation zone will call for break out trading depending on the direction of breakout. A break above 54.14 will lead to a bullish acceleration  towards 60.34 and possibly higher, while a break below 50.76 will push the price lower to 43.55. A key support level can be seen at 43.55, while a key Resistance can be seen at. 60.

Trade Recommendations:

Wait for clear breakout above 54.14 to go long with an ideal target at 60. Sell positions will only be ideal below 50.76 with a target at 43
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Daily Technical Analysis

The EURUSD had a bullish momentum last week topped at 1.0684 but traded a little bit lower earlier today hit 1.0602. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As you can see on my H1 chart below, price is moving inside a bullish channel suggests a valid bul…

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Weekly analysis- Forex Fundamental Analysis – Buy S&P500

Forecast for the week from January 16 to January 20: XAU/USD:I would recommend selling gold for two reasons. First of all, this week we might expect US currency quotes rising, which would have a negative impact on gold price. The US macroeconomic statistics published on previous Friday indicates release of positive data on producer price index. Inflation in US in 2016, apparently, will reach 2%. That will allow Fed to continue its interest rate increase policy. As neither ECB nor Bank of England or Bank of Japan are going to increase interest rates, dollar will be well-positioned on forex. Second of all, I expect increase in quotes of leading global stock indices against the background of positive corporate reporting for the 4 quarter of 2016. That means more pressure on gold as a safe financial asset. Trading recommendation: Sell 1197/1210 and take profit 1164.Brent:The situation for this week in not clear. On the one hand, strong December US inflation data may trigger new rise of US dollar considering expectations of monetary tightening by FOMC. Why do I expect CPI increase on Wednesday, January 18th? It is suggested by consumption expenditure and increase in producer price index up to 1.6% per annum. PPI in US hasn’t reached such a high level since 2013. If dollar rises, gold quotes decline. On the other hand, Baker Hughes reported decrease in number of vertical drilling platforms in US by 11, total number now is 63. That suggests substential decrease of oil output, which will be welcomed by market participants. Market situation: flat 54,00 – 57,50.S&P500:This week is reach in corporate reporting. There will be reports from such giants of the market as IBM, Citigroup, American Express, Morgan Stanley. To my mind, release of positive data may be expected considering ISM Business Activity Index increase. I would expect increase in quotes and revising of historic high till Wednesday, later – profit-taking on long positions. December inflation report may trigger correction. The growth of consumer prices will cause the US Treasury bonds yield increase. Against this background, one might expect capital outflows out of stock market and capital inflows to debt market. Trading recommendation: Buy 2275/2260 and take profit 2293.
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Weekly analysis- Forex Technical Analysis: Trend potential – Weekly Review. S&P500, Brent, gold

Monthly chart: an issue “Where is the S&P’s highest?” remains on the agenda. There are no answers yet. The only thing we can say is that bullish intentions are not supported by ADX, it increases the possibility of reversal to the downside. Weekly chart: there might be resistance at 2294.1 (upper Bollinger band). ADX is corrective. As a rule, in such situations the price is not likely to go higher than upper band. Support level is around middle Bollinger band (2192.3)Daily chart: more localized resistance level is at 2282.3. Two supports are at 2264.9 and 2247.3 (middle and lower Bollinger bands)Expectations:Core scenario – touching in 2294.1 and later drop to 2264.9 and 2247.3Alternative scenario – bounce to the downside from more localized level (2282.3)Solutions: consider looking for downward entries on one of the resistance levels (2282.3 and 2294.1)BrentMonthly chart: flat with up move potential around middle Bollinger band (51.71) continues. Bulls have all the positional possibilities for a shift to 66.84 (upper Bollinger band).Weekly chart: we are observing an active ADX. The price is trapped inside upper Bollinger envelope range (51.71-58.779). Considering general upward movement Brent quotes are likely to rise further from 51.71 with possible break higher than 59.00 (in mid terms)Daily chart: oscillator has signs of divergence and previous week was closed with a nice bearish inside bar. That is a good reason for selling towards 51.71.Expectations: decline from the current levels towards 51.71Solutions: consider selling towards 51.71GoldMonthly chart: ADX is in active trend state and we can observe activated local bullish Over&Under.Weekly chart: here we can see that Over&Under pattern mentioned above is not technically perfect yet from the point of view of testing entry point (it is inside penultimate low range of 1078.70). Potential gold demand is also possible around lower Bollinger band (1105.53) and it is also not tested yet. So one might expect another down move from resistance level of 1243.56 (middle Bollinger band)Daily chart: there is local bullish trend potential, that matches the scenario of testing 1243.56 level.Expectations: we would expect rise towards 1243.56 and later decline towards 1105.53Solutions:1. Consider buying towards 1243.562. Consider selling from 1243.56 to 1105.53
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